According to China Customs statistics, in the first two months of this year, China's clothing (including clothing accessories, the same below) accumulated exports of 23.38 billion billion US dollars, an increase of 12.7 percent over the same period last year. Due to the low export base in the same period last year, and the basic end of overseas destocking and replenishment of inventory, market demand rebounded. In the first two months, clothing exports achieved a steady start, continuing the positive year-on-year growth momentum in December last year, and the export growth rate was significantly higher than that in December last year. Accelerated by 10.8 percentage points.
1, January-February China's clothing exports
Clothing export volume increases and prices fall
The export of woven and knitted garments has double-digit growth, and the increase in export volume is more obvious, but the price has dropped significantly. From January to February, exports of knitted garments were 10.3 billion billion US dollars, up 13.5 per cent year-on-year; the number of exports was 3.45 billion, up 25.5 per cent; and export prices fell 9.6 per cent year-on-year. Exports of woven garments were 10.18 billion billion US dollars, up 11.7 per cent year-on-year; the number of exports was 2.18 billion, up 32.9 per cent year-on-year; export prices fell 15.9 per cent year-on-year. Exports of clothing accessories were 2.15 billion US dollars, up 12.7 per cent year on year. The reasons for the increase and decrease in export volume are: first, the export price increased greatly in the same period last year, resulting in a higher base; second, although the demand in the international market has rebounded, it still tends to be low-priced goods; third, the proportion of cross-border e-commerce exports with lower unit prices has increased significantly.
Exports of underwear clothing increased significantly
From January to February, the export of outerwear clothing increased slightly, while the export of shirt and underwear clothing increased significantly. Exports of overcoats/cold suits fell by 12.3 per cent, while exports of suits/casual suits rose by only 4 per cent. Exports of knitted T-shirts, shirts, underwear/pajamas and corsets increased by 41.2 per cent, 20.9 per cent, 20.6 per cent and 21 per cent, respectively.
Exports to the United States and the European Union increased rapidly, while exports to Japan declined.
From January to February, my country's exports to Western developed economies (the United States, Canada, Europe, Britain, Japan, Australia and New Zealand) amounted to US $12.38 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.6 percent. Exports to the United States were $4.81 billion billion, up 18.8 percent year-on-year, accounting for 20.6 percent, up 1.1 percentage points. Exports to the EU were US $3.71 billion billion, up 14% year on year, accounting for 15.9 per cent, up 0.2 percentage points. Exports to Japan were US $1.77 billion billion, down 9.5 per cent, accounting for 7.6 per cent, down 1.8 percentage points. Exports to the United Kingdom and Canada were $6.9 and $0.38 billion, respectively, up 18.5 per cent and 15.7 per cent, respectively. Exports to Australia, South Korea and Singapore fell by 0.5 per cent, 7 per cent and 4.9 per cent to $8.9, $7.8 and $0.37 billion, respectively.
Exports to major emerging markets all maintained growth. From January to February, exports to countries along the "Belt and Road" were US $6.86 billion billion, an increase of 18.9 percent year-on-year; accounting for 29.3 percent, an increase of 1.5 percentage points. Exports to ASEAN were US $2.08 billion billion, up 6.3 per cent from the same period last year, accounting for 8.9 per cent, down 0.5 percentage points. Exports to the five Central Asian countries reached US $1.91 billion billion, an increase of 37.5 per cent, of which exports to Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan increased by 133.1 per cent and 44.3 per cent respectively. Exports to Russia were $0.58 billion billion, up 14.8 percent. Exports to Africa reached US $1.41 billion billion, up 11.5 per cent year on year. Exports to Latin America were US $1.67 billion billion, up 14.2 per cent year on year. Exports to the six GCC countries reached 0.98 billion billion US dollars, up 18.2 percent year on year.
Exports in central and western regions increased faster
From January to February, the export of "five provinces and one city" in the east showed a growth trend except Shandong. Exports from Zhejiang, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Fujian and Shanghai increased by 23.5 percent, 11.3 percent, 14.8 percent, 12 percent and 6.7 percent, respectively, while exports from Shandong fell by 4.9 percent. The "five provinces and one city" in the east accounted for 74.9 percent of the country, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the same period last year. Exports of the 20 provinces and cities in the central and western regions increased by 14.5 percent, accounting for 21.5 percent of total exports, an increase of 0.3 percentage points. Among them, Xinjiang, Hubei, Sichuan and Guangxi increased by 51.3, 77.3, 67 and 85 per cent respectively. From January to February, Xinjiang's total export volume surpassed Shandong and Shanghai, becoming the fifth largest export province and city.
2. International market situation
Imports in developed country markets fell.
In January, clothing imports from developed economies such as the United States, Canada, Europe, Britain, Japan and Australia continued to weaken, while South Korea's imports were the same as the same period last year. In January, the United States imported $7.02 billion billion of clothing, down 14.9 percent year-on-year. EU imports were $7.15 billion billion, down 20.1 percent year-on-year. British imports were $1.6 billion billion, down 13.6 percent. Canada imported $0.85 billion billion, down 18.4 percent. Australia imported $0.78 billion billion, down 8.9 percent. Japan imported $2.15 billion billion, down 11.6 percent. South Korea imported $1.17 billion billion, the same as last year.
Vietnam, Bangladesh export growth resumed
According to data from the General Administration of Statistics of the Ministry of Planning and Investment of Vietnam, Vietnam's exports of textiles and clothing increased by 7.9 year-on-year in the first quarter. According to data from the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA), from January to February, Bangladesh exported 9.47 billion US dollars of garments, an increase of 13.2 percent year-on-year. In January, India exported 1.51 billion US dollars, down 3% year-on-year; Indonesia exported 0.74 billion US dollars of clothing, up 5.9 percent year-on-year; Turkey exported 1.41 billion US dollars of clothing, down 9.8 percent year-on-year.
3. Trend Outlook
The growth momentum of the US economy remains strong, Japan has ushered in the turning point of the "lost 30 years", out of the shadow of long-term deflation, and the euro zone has fallen into recession due to high inflation and energy crisis. The recent Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) forecast that global economic growth will intensify, raising the US economic growth forecast for 2024 from 1.5 per cent to 2.1 per cent, but lowering the growth forecast for the euro area from 0.9 per cent to 0.6 per cent, highlighting the divergence in economic prospects between the United States and Europe. JPMorgan's global manufacturing PMI index has remained above the boom-bust balance since January-February, ending the previous 16 consecutive months of contraction and showing marginal improvement in demand outside the start of the year. In 2024, the world economy is still good and risky, showing bright spots in an uneven recovery, but it also faces challenges.
US consumer demand picks up
According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. retail sales rebounded to 0.6 percent month-on-month in February, and year-on-year growth rebounded to 1.5 percent. In February, the United States ushered in the presidential holiday, superimposed on the weather warmer, consumer demand rebounded. The consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in the United States was 76.5 in March, down 0.4 from February, and overall it is still on the rebound. In February, clothing stores sold $26.29 billion billion in retail sales, down 0.5 percent from the previous month and up 1.3 percent from a year earlier.
Eurozone retail sales continue to be under pressure
According to preliminary data from Eurostat, inflation in the euro area rose 2.6 percent year-on-year in February, slowing from 2.8 percent in January. According to the latest data from Eurostat, the retail sales index of the 19 countries in the euro area grew by -1.0 percent year-on-year in January, down 0.5 percentage points from December 2023 and has been in a negative growth range for 16 consecutive months. With the ECB cutting interest rates or still too early, retail growth in the euro zone may continue to be under pressure.
Japanese consumption continues to decline
In its monthly economic report released on February 21, the Cabinet Office lowered its assessment of economic conditions for the first time in three months. According to the report, Japan's economy is still recovering moderately, although it seems to be stagnating recently. The Japanese government finalized comprehensive economic stimulus measures totaling about 17 trillion yen in November last year, which is expected to boost personal consumption by 1.2 per cent. In 2023, the monthly consumption expenditure of Japanese households with more than two people was 290000 yen (about 14290 yuan), a 2.6 per cent decrease from the previous year. In January, Japan's textile and apparel retail sales totaled 703 billion yen, down 8.3 percent year-on-year.
From the perspective of market demand and export order trends, compared with last year, there is a certain positive momentum of stabilization and improvement in the first half of this year. However, due to the unstable recovery of external demand, geopolitical conflicts, "super election year" and other factors, exports throughout the year There are still many uncertain factors and risk challenges.